Soniqs vs Mirage preview: Fine margins for three teams fighting for final two Major places

The final day of the North American League for Stage 3 is upon us as we’ll find the final two NAL teams that will join TSM FTX and Spacestation Gaming at the Six Jönköping Major.

• 2:00 PM EDT -- Spacestation Gaming vs TSM FTX
• 3:30 PM EDT -- Mirage vs Soniqs
• 5:00 PM EDT -- Astralis vs Oxygen Esports
• 6:30 PM EDT -- beastcoast vs Parabellum Esports
• 8:00 PM EDT -- DarkZero Esports vs XSET

The NAL Stage 3 title will be decided in the day's opening game as Spacestation Gaming face TSM. These two teams currently lead the league and are the only ones locked in for the November Major. As TSM have a two-point advantage, they only need two points to finish first.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, beastcoast and Parabellum will also clash with little consequence for them, as beastcoast are locked into last place. But, if Parabellum fail to get all three points, both XSET and DZ will qualify for the Six Invitational no matter their own results.

DarkZero and XSET will face each other in the last game of the day. While this has no impact on the Major, a single point for either team will lock them into a Six Invitational place if they’re not qualified already. 

For the Major spots, Astralis need at least two points against a very impressive-looking Oxygen roster, and no matter their result, they must hope that the Soniqs vs Mirage result goes their way.

Finally, we have Soniqs vs Mirage, the most important game of the NAL stage, as at least one Jönköping Major spot will be determined in this head-to-head.

Here’s a rundown on what to expect in this matchup.

The stakes

With Soniqs and Mirage on 15 points compared to Astralis on 13, a win for either team puts them out of reach of Astralis on 17 or 18 points. Overtime or not, they just need a win. 

Whoever loses still has a chance. No matter the result, both teams will qualify if Astralis lose their game. However, that won’t take place until after Soniqs vs Mirage. 

If either Mirage or Soniqs lose in overtime, then Astralis need all three points against Oxygen. If Mirage loses in overtime then three points are all Astralis requires. However, a 7-2 is needed if Mirage beat Soniqs in overtime. 

If Mirage lose outright, then Astralis just need a win against Oxygen. On the other hand, if Soniqs lose outright, then the magnitude of Astralis' win will depend on both team's results as they'll need to overtake Soniqs' total round difference.

Head-to-heads

Considering Mirage’s weak history before this stage, they have had a better-than-expected head-to-head history against Soniqs

• Stage 1 2021 -- Mirage wins 7-2 on Clubhouse
• Stage 2 2021 -- Soniqs wins 7-4 on Chalet
• Stage 3 2021 -- Soniqs wins 8-6 on Clubhouse
• Stage 1 2022 -- Soniqs wins 7-2 on Villa
• Stage 2 2022 -- Mirage wins 7-5 on Villa

During Stage 2, Soniqs were one of just two teams Mirage beat alongside beastcoast, while Mirage and TSM were the only teams to beat Soniqs in regulation time. 

This game saw Gryxr achieve more than double the kills of his next-best teammate, while Nyx was Mirage’s MVP.

Before this, Mirage’s only prior victory against Soniqs was when Hotancold was on the Mirage lineup.

Mirage’s entry issue

Despite being in fourth place, Mirage have an entry differential of minus 11. This is the joint-worst figure in the NAL at the moment, with last-placed beastcoast on minus eight.

While entry record isn’t everything, trying to come back against top-level teams from behind in the majority of rounds is particularly hard. 

Dexter and Kento are currently both in the bottom five by entry record, with seven opening kills to 15 opening deaths. On the other hand, Soniqs had an issue with this last stage, but Yeti, who went 4-17, has since left the team and is currently 15-3 on entry on SSG. 

Another statistical issue can be seen when considering plant numbers. While somewhat of an oversimplification, most good teams have a single dedicated planter who gets down the vast majority of defuser plants. SSG have Bosco with 14 of the team’s 16, TSM have Gasher with eight out of 11, and Soniqs have Geo with eight out of 14. 

Mirage, meanwhile have Benjimoola and Mohesse on six each, out of a team total of 16. While the high plant count is a good sign, the spread on who’s holding the F key is likely due to defuser carriers dying early, forcing someone else to pick it up. Closer rounds also necessitate players to plant who usually don’t. This all adds up to rounds being messier on average.

This isn’t incredibly surprising for a team that just made two player changes and one that is learning to recover from back-to-back 10th-place finishes, but is another area that Soniqs can exploit.

Mirage’s map bans

In the past three months, Mirage have been to five maps. Chalet, Clubhouse, and Oregon were each played once and lost once, while they’ve won two out of three times they went to Villa and Theme Park. 

On Villa, they beat Parabellum and DarkZero but lost to XSET, while on Theme Park they beat Oxygen and Astralis and lost to TSM. These are also the only two maps Mirage has ever beaten Soniqs on. 

They are also both in Soniqs’ top three most banned maps alongside Kafe. Combined, Soniqs have been to Villa and Theme just once, where they lost to G2 in their infamous 5-1 reverse-sweep loss, meaning it’s unlikely they’re hiding the maps for a rainy day.

Soniqs have used 23 bans on these two maps alone, meaning it’s very unlikely their game tonight will go here… and these are the only maps Mirage have won on this stage. This game might be won in the map ban phase.