A six-way tie on the final NAL play day? It’s very possible.

Four teams from each region will meet in August at the Six Berlin Major. So far, only one of these teams is known; Oxygen Esports. However, today will see three more lock in their spots as Stage 2 of the North American League comes to a close.

These three spots have seven teams in contention -- Parabellum, Soniqs, Astralis, XSET, DarkZero, Spacestation, and TSM -- so let’s look through the chances each team has.

Parabellum Esports vs Soniqs Esports in a head-to-head

As we saw with DarkZero vs. SSG last stage, this stage will also see a head-to-head for a major spot with the victor between Parabellum and the Soniqs guaranteed a spot at the Major. The loser still has a chance to qualify, with an overtime loss from Parabellum likely enough also for them, while a loss for the Soniqs is probably not enough. 

Spacestation Gaming vs Astralis could also be a head-to-head

SSG were in this position in Stage 1 and now they’re here again. A win for Astralis sends the Charlotte finalists to Berlin, while a regulation-time win for SSG gets them close to the Major -- but not definitively there -- as they’ll still need to wait for other results. 

Only a single point separates the two teams and their results reflect this. Astralis beat the Soniqs, DZ, and XSET and almost took OxG to overtime, while SSG beat OxG and DZ and lost in overtime to pB, TSM, and the Soniqs. 

The key issue here is that SSG need to win in regulation time to have any chance at the Major and that’s something they’ve found very hard to do. On the other hand, an overtime win should be fine for Astralis.

XSET’s unlikely to do it

While mathematically possible, for XSET to qualify for Berlin they really need to beat Oxygen Esports in regulation time. Both the Soniqs and Spacestation have managed this already during this stage, but this is a tough task as OxG would want the all-important top seed. 

There is also another dimension to this game in play, as XSET features former OxG duo Leonardo "Kyno" Figueiredo and Evan "Yoggah" Nelson. XSET’s route is tough and will be dictated by the team two of their star players left. 

Easier games for DZ and TSM?

DZ play Mirage and TSM play beastcoast. On paper, both should be won by the former teams, but Mirage’s win over the Soniqs last week shows that things may not go to plan. 

A tiebreaker will almost certainly be needed to decide the top four

Both DarkZero and TSM are likely to hit 15 points with wins over Mirage and beastcoast, who sit at the bottom of the table. Astralis could also be on 15 if they only manage an overtime win over SSG, while a regulation win for SSG puts them on 15. 

Furthermore, if the Soniqs game ends with an overtime win for the Soniqs, then both they and Parabellum will also be on 15 points. Finally, a win by XSET in regulation time over Oxygen puts them on 15 as well. 

In total, that’s a possible six-way tie for second place; the perfect end to the closest NA League stage to date. 

The way this would be solved is by round difference, in which case the Soniqs would be guaranteed to be in the top-four while TSM and SSG would definitely be out. The rest of the results would depend on the specific scorelines today.

The most likely result

Obviously with so many upsets during this stage, this is hard to call.

Nevertheless, SSG has lost three of the last four games, meaning Astralis are more likely to take a win, giving them a spot, while XSET is likely to lose their game against OxG, ruling them out. 

Assuming pB vs Sq ends with a regulation time result, the victor of that game will also qualify. 

That leaves just one spot left, which both DarkZero and TSM could clinch depending on who earns the most points. If they both win their games in regulation, then there’s a tiebreaker and TSM goes in with a negative four-round difference, meaning DZ would likely take it. 

That’s a lot of hypotheticals and realistically, it’s all to play for. Tune in later today as the final games are played out.