Banner image: Ubisoft/Kirill Bashkirov
NAL day eight was pushed to Oct. 20 and day nine to Oct. 21 due to the tragic death of Michael "KiXSTAr" Stockley.
In lieu of flowers, KiXSTAr's family has asked that people donate to their local food banks. The SiegeGG team members send their deepest condolences to his family and friends.
The relegation logjam
Currently, there are four teams with a mere six points on the stage and one team with five: XSET.
One of the teams with six points, DarkZero, has three games left on the stage. They stand the best chance at setting themselves apart, but to make a Major, they'll likely need at least a victory in all three games.
For Mirage, XSET, Astralis, and beastcoast, the Gordian Knot of tiebreakers is about to unfold. Who plays in the relegation match at the US Finals will be decided by which of these teams perform the best against the perennial "top four" -- TSM, DarkZero, Oxygen, and Spacestation.
This year, you can throw Soniqs into the upper bracket, and could probably make a case for them to be included in the top four over DarkZero.
Precisely none of the bottom four teams play each other on Oct. 20. Astralis will play DarkZero, who are their equal in points, but DZ's multiple chances set them apart from the rest of the six-five point pack.
The Oct. 20 games pose a "set-up" for each of these teams heading into the Oct. 21 day, especially if XSET is able to peel a point or two off TSM. All the same, beastcoast need their best against Spacestation, Mirage need to come out with some fire against Soniqs. Astralis are off on the first day, and they'll only get a final chance to gain points on Oct. 21 against DarkZero.
Every point matters for each of these teams. While a game remains for each on the final day of the stage, Oct. 20 will be about setting the stage.
So, who has the best chance at putting some distance between themselves and the relegation spot? History says Mirage.
They're the only team that has beaten the team they're up against this week in the past stages: Stage 1's match between Soniqs and Mirage went to the blue-clad team with a 7-2 scoreline. Of course, that was when Matthew "Hotancold" Stevens played for Mirage, and they've regressed since he left for Spacestation, but a result is a result.
Oxygen vs. DarkZero will provide entertainment, solid Siege
Outside of the relegation match tracker, Oxygen vs. DarkZero will likely be the most even, best game on the Oct. 20 slate. Oxygen are playing like men possessed -- Frankie "VertcL" Andres Cordero is having one of the best statistical stages of his career -- and look extremely strong headed into Sweden.
DarkZero have yet to completely gel with Troy "Canadian" Jaroslawski at the helm, but have a promising veteran core with several young talents.
For all intents and purposes, this match will be the match of the day in terms of closeness of the caliber of the teams, but will be the least impactful on the overall NAL landscape, especially if Oxygen wins.
The Major qualification situation
The other implications from the initial day's games reside with Sweden Major berths. Essentially, Oxygen and Soniqs could solidify their commanding leads in the region with confirmed Major berths.
They aren't in any imminent danger of losing those spots; mathematically it's an extremely slim chance they get passed up, but after Oct. 20, it could be a completely sealed up situation.
Oxygen and Soniqs will be favorites in their matches. It would not surprise anyone if they lock in their spots even if they lose.