The end of the BR6 League and key matches in the APAC League have set up an interesting dynamic when it comes to Six Invitational qualification.
The top 16 teams by performance across the year will be invited to compete at SI 2023, alongside four open qualifier rosters; one from each region.
With two of three stages fully complete and some other teams locked into position for Stage 3, we already know five of 16 invited teams; w7m esports, DarkZero Esports, XSET, Astralis, and Oxygen Esports. Looking forward at the other 11 spots, APAC could either have a very minimal presence at the event or turn up in full force.
APAC: Anywhere from two to four teams could still qualify
Starting from the top, CAG are in 13th place in the SI Points standings and are set to attend another Major. Short of a terrible final few weeks, they are likely to qualify.
Elevate meanwhile probably only needs a fourth place finish in APAC South to qualify for SI 2023… but currently sit in fifth place. Fortunately for them, they have a game in hand over fourth-placed Wildcard, who sit one point ahead of them after a stunning 7-2 win over the weekend.
Following them are SANDBOX on 435 Points, meaning they need to qualify for the Six Major and likely need a third-place group stage finish or better.
DWG KIA, meanwhile, will have enough points if they qualify for the Six Major but this looks unlikely. What is more unlikely, though, will be Knights, Gaimin Gladiators, and Fnatic winning the whole Six Major to earn enough points to qualify for SI 2023 directly.
Put together, that means APAC will likely have a minimum of two teams in attendance -- CYCLOPS and one qualifier roster -- and a maximum of five should Elevate, Dire Wolves, and SANDBOX have games go their way domestically and at the Major. That’s an increase from 2022’s four teams and is exactly one quarter of all spots.
LATAM: Either four or 5 teams will likely qualify
Moving to LATAM, w7m have already mathematically locked in qualification to SI 2023.
Assuming the Brazilian sides win the Six Major spots over the Mexican and South American rosters, that means only FaZe, Liquid, and Black Dragons can win any more SI Points… and even if BD win the Six Major, they still won’t have enough points to qualify.
This means that there is a maximum of four more teams that can qualify; FaZe and Liquid, by qualifying for the Six Major, FURIA, who are stuck on 720 points and must hope no more than eight teams overtake them, and one open qualifier team.
Furthermore, as mentioned previously, 730 Points were what Rogue needed to finish 16th by SI Points last year, so FURIA’s 720 count is not that safe.
Team Liquid also may be in a spot of trouble as if they exit the Jönköping Major in last place -- that’ll put them on 730 Points, which is also in the danger zone. While this new Liquid lineup looks strong, it was eliminated in the groups at three prior Majors, SI 2020, SI 2018, and the Paris Major, and missed out of the Berlin Major a few months ago. Its strongest recent result was a semi-finals finish at the Charlotte Major.
This means while five teams is most likely for LATAM, Liquid and FURIA’s fates are still to be determined and could leave LATAM down with just three team.
LATAM disadvantages
NA and EU have had one very good and one very bad event each. LATAM, however, has had a pretty good showing in both Charlotte and Berlin.
In Charlotte, both Team oNe reached the quarter-finals, Liquid almost knocked out the eventual champions in the semi-finals, and the two other LATAM teams finished third in their group. In Berlin, meanwhile, FaZe were a round away from winning the title, w7m reached the semi-finals, FURIA reached the quarter-finals, and NiP finished third in their group.
It is arguable that LATAM has been the best region this year. Yet, short of a non-BR LATAM team winning the Major title, no matter how much LATAM dominates at the Jönköping Major, the region is effectively locked into a maximum of five SI attendees -- less than NA or EU.
The reason for this is simply that they need to share points between more teams. In NA and EU, the top eight out of 10 teams win SI Points every stage. This means even if a top team has a bad stage, it will still probably gain a few hundred points. Oxygen Esports, for example, qualified for SI 2023 with a seventh place finish in Stage 3, as this awarded 140 Points.
In LATAM, meanwhile, points are awarded only to CES attendees, which means that teams need a top four finish in the BR6 first. The top two in Mexico and South America get the rest of the points instead and the fifth placed and onwards teams in the BR6 League gets zero. This is a particular issue for the likes of Black Dragons, who missed out on the CES in Stage 1 by round difference and Stage 2 by just two points. Now, they have finally reached the CES, but even if they win the Six Major, it’s too late for their SI hopes.
If the BR6 had the same points system as EUL and NAL, here’s how many points each team would have:
- 1060 - w7m esports
- 980 - FaZe Clan
- 910 - Team Liquid
- 900 - FURIA
- 840 - Team oNe
- 640 - Black Dragons
- 395 - MIBR
- 330 - Ninjas in Pyjamas
- 115 - 00 Nation and INTZ
This way w7m, FaZe, Liquid, and FURIA would already be mathematically locked into a SI appearance, with oNe, an open qualifier team, and possibly Black Dragons to still come. Essentially, we would likely have seven teams from Brazil -- not four, or five.
This also impacts APAC, though not as much as this, since the APAC Playoffs were removed. Now, while the number of points on offer to all regions is the same, the need to split APAC’s total evenly between North and South means winning these leagues gets the winner 215 Points, compared to 225 in any other league.