Image: Ubisoft/Eric Anamalay
Play day eight of the EUL will take place tonight, as Rogue aim to become the first European team to reach the Jönköping Major.
- 6:00PM CEST -- Natus Vincere vs Outsiders
- 7:15PM CEST -- Rogue vs Team Secret
- 8:30PM CEST -- Heroic vs MNM Gaming
- 9:45PM CEST -- G2 Esports vs Team BDS
- 11:00PM CEST -- TT9 Esports vs Wolves Esports
This week will see a number of games which should be one-sided, at least on paper.
Wolves Esports vs TT9 Esports pits the first and last placed teams in the league against each other, Rogue vs Secret sees third and ninth face off, and G2 Esports vs Team BDS will be second versus eighth.
Wolves and BDS already have enough points to likely make it to the Major regardless of their results while Secret and TT9 are mathematically already out of the race.
G2, meanwhile, need to overcome a four point deficit with two games remaining, while Rogue on 14 points should be safe with a win this week. They, BDS, and Wolves could all qualify for the upcoming Jönköping Major.
The remaining two games will be key for the fight for fourth place, a position Heroic currently are in.
This is as fourth and fifth placed Heroic and MNM Gaming will play each other while Outsiders in sixth will play NAVI in seventh. With three points separating all four teams, it is a must-win for all rosters.
Here’s a deeper look at Heroic and MNM’s game, as the victor will lead the other three into the final play day and have the Major spot within their grasp.
Head-to-Head
MNM beat Heroic to an SI 2022 place earlier this year and they can now also pip them to the Jönköping Major, starting with their first win against Heroic this week.
- 2022 Stage 1 - Heroic wins 7-4 on Clubhouse
- 2022 Stage 2 - Heroic wins 8-6 on Theme Park
While MNM have a perfect record against some of the top teams in Europe, including Rogue and BDS, they have a much worse record against others. Heroic is a nut they have been unable to crack yet in the 2022 season, though they forced them to overtime in Stage 2.
While MNM notably beat Heroic (then cowana Gaming) in the Six Invitational qualifier grand-final to reach SI 2022 last January, they haven’t been able to win since UUNO joined Heroic.
If they lose to Heroic in regulation time (and Rogue beat Secret, as is likely), their Major campaign will be over and MNM may need to go through the SI qualifiers once again to reach the world championship.
Solotov vs Benjamaster on entry
The best two players by entry in the European League at the moment are MNM’s Solotov, with 28 opening kills to 15 opening deaths, and Heroic’s Benjamaster, with 14 opening kills to four opening deaths.
Benjamaster is also the player with the best kills-per-round figure in the league at 1.02 while Solotov is third at 0.96 kills per round.
With these two now set to clash with each other we could have an incredibly action packed game.
During Stage 2’s head-to-head, Benjamaster had 16 kills to eight deaths and a 1.54 SiegeGG Rating. Similarly, he went 12-6 with a 1.32 Rating in Stage 1. Anything less than a 2.0 kill-death ratio will be a low for the Dane in this meeting, which is a terrifying prospect for MNM to deal with.
Conversely, Solotov was the best MNM player in the Stage 1 clash, going 12-9 himself with a 1.38 Rating, but only managed a 1.00 Rating and 11-11 K-D in the Stage 2 match.
Yuzus’ statistical drop-off
In Stage 2, Yuzus had a 1.23 SiegeGG Rating and had the second-highest K-D in the league behind Spoit and the third-highest kill count behind him and Shaiiko. He currently has a 0.96 SiegeGG Rating and has a minus two K-D.
This is one of the largest individual drop offs in the European League, but Tyrant and Solotov have been picking up some of the slack. MNM are still in a good position, but having the 105-kills Yuzus from Stage 2 would be a game changer.
Heroic’s Major chances
While MNM can lose their Major qualification hopes this week, Heroic can actually qualify for the Major tonight.
A three-point win puts Heroic on 16 points and MNM on 12, with one game remaining. If NAVI then beat Outsiders in overtime, then both of those two will be on 12 as well. This scenario would lock Heroic, Wolves, BDS, and (should they beat Secret) Rogue into a place each at the Major.
Win records so far
When looking at their current standings, Heroic in fourth place have not won or lost in an upset result. They lost to the top two teams in the league, got all three points from the bottom three, and won in overtime against sixth and seventh. This now leaves the teams either side of them left to play.
Their lack of massive variance in performance is a good sign for Heroic. It implies we’re not going to see 0-7 results come out of nowhere. It may hurt them if they can’t find the performances against the likes of Wolves at a Major, but it means there’s a very good chance they’ll get at least six rounds vs MNM Gaming and get to the Major in the first place.