Play day nine of the European League will take place tomorrow night, as the final two Six Jonkoping Major attendees will be determined.
- 6:00PM CEST -- Team Secret vs TT9 Esports
- 7:15PM CEST -- MNM Gaming vs Team BDS
- 8:30PM CEST -- Heroic vs Rogue
- 9:45PM CEST -- Wolves Esports vs Natus Vincere
- 11:00PM CEST -- Outsiders vs G2 Esports
While the Six Major spots will be determined across three games, there are also two games purely for seeding.
Secret will play TT9. Neither team can change positions, but TT9 can avoid the fate of being the first team in EU, NA, or LATAM history to finish a stage with zero points.
Outsiders will also play G2 Esports. Both teams could finish anywhere between eighth and fifth place and will range from just missing out on the Major to being well off the pace as one of Europe's worst teams. This could end up dictating transfer decisions to come.
Everyone's interested in the three middle games, however.
Starting with MNM Gaming vs BDS, MNM need a win to qualify for the Major. One point will probably be enough also, while zero leaves it up to fate.
Heroic vs Rogue is undeniably the matchup to watch, though, as both teams still have their hopes on the line. Rogue need a win to guarantee it, but one point will also likely be enough. Heroic, meanwhile, may not even make it with three points, so a win is absolutely necessary.
Finally, we have NAVI vs Wolves. It's possible the race would be over by this point, but if NAVI are still in it, then they will also need three points.
Here's a further breakdown of the make-or-break matchup.
Heroic vs Rogue
As a decider matchup, it's rather apt that Kantoraketti and UUNO, the longtime G2 teammates that were both kicked from the roster in Jun. 2021 will face off for a place at the Major. Cryn also played with both players on G2, but only for two months.
While they've obviously faced each other before, it was never in a game as important as this, as it'll decide which ex-G2 members will reach the event while G2 languish in eighth place.
The meeting will also determine who will be the home favourites. On one side, we have the Danish organization, which includes a Danish and Finnish player, a Norweigian head coach, and a Finnish streamer. On the other side, we have Spoit on Rogue, Sweden's only professional player.
With G2, NiP, and Astralis all missing out, one of these two will have the home-field advantage should they reach the playoffs.
This is also a notable game as both Rogue and Heroic (then cowana Gaming) played in the 2020 EUL relegation games back in Jan. 2021, alongside MNM Gaming. Now, though after a bevy of roster changes, the same three teams are playing for two Major spots. The fourth member of this fight, NAVI, includes members from both MNM and cowana's relegation lineups.
Finally, for Heroic, this could be their last chance to reach SI 2023. Previously, every single Major or SI qualifier in Europe has been won by a recent Challenger League competitor. With how impressive the likes of Mkers seem to be in EUCL, this means Heroic probably needs the SI Points to make it.
They currently have 640 SI Points, and a fifth-place finish will net them 85 more for a total of 725. Last year 730 was needed to make it. Making it into the top four in the EUL wins them an additional 50 SI Points, which could make all the difference.
Head-to-Heads
While both team's core lineups have only been together since March this year, here's all their results since cowana first reached the European League:
- EUL 2021 Stage 1 -- cowana win 7-2 on Kafe Dostoyevsky
- EUL 2021 Stage 2 -- cowana win 7-1 on Coastline (Mrofficer88 plays for Kendrew)
- EUL 2021 Stage 3 -- Rogue win 7-4 on Kafe Dostoyevsky
- EUL 2022 Stage 1 -- Heroic win 7-3 on Chalet
- Gamers Without Borders -- Rogue win 4-7, 8-7, 7-1 on Bank, Oregon, and Kafe Dostoyevsky
- EUL 2022 Stage 2 -- Rogue win 7-3 on Clubhouse
The results are fairly representative of the two team's region-wide performances. Heroic were best in the EUL in Stage 1 this year and beat Rogue then. Then, Rogue won the Berlin Major after they managed to beat Heroic in Stage 2.
With both teams being neck-and-neck in the standings right now, that does imply the results will be close.
While the result was 7-3 last time they played, this did include a 1v3 quad-kill and a 1v2 from Cryn, a 1v1 and a quad-kill from Spoit and a 1v2 from Kantoraketti. They won four clutches and won by four rounds.
That clutch power was seen in full force against FaZe Clan during the Berlin Major grand-final and doesn't indicate issues in Heroic necessarily, but does show that a luckier Heroic could have taken a lot more from this game.
Now with two new players, they may be able to pull something off this stage.
Spoit's not top fragging?
In his debut stage, Spoit was a revelation. He was the top fragger, top player by SiegeGG Rating, and second best player on entry.
While he's still putting up the numbers, he hasn't been able to stay at the upper echolons of EUL statistics that only Shaiiko seems to be able to inhabit consistently. He currently has a 1.12 SiegeGG Rating, which puts him second on Rogue behind Cryn, and 13th overall in the European League.
He is also currently on a plus two differential compared to Cryn on zero, and Kantoraketti on minus-four. During Stage 2, Spoit debuted with a plus 14 figure, while LeonGids had the second most opening engagements with minus two differential.
This drop in overall and opening kills obviously can't be blamed on Spoit -- it's likely a teamwide problem and he can't be expected to keep at a plus 14 figure. Nevertheless, it is notably hurting the team.
Compared to Rogue's minus 10 opening differential, Heroic are at plus nine.
Heroic's new additions
Jume is now Heroic's main entry player and he's excelled on this role alongside Benjamaster. Last stage, Benjamaster carried out this role alongside UUNO, who had three kills to 11 deaths. This replacement was a great success so far.
Benjamaster himself has been less of a team carry than he was during Stage 2, but has had less of a dramatic drop in frag counts as Spoit did.
Finally, Meloo has been a fairly solid backbone for the roster and has slotted into the flex role and has excelled primarily on the attack.