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Here’s how Wolves can qualify for the Berlin Major tonight

Be prepared for a lot of maths.

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Wolves are currently on a hot streak. Five wins in five games means that they’re on 15 points with four games remaining, with their nearest rivals on 10 or nine points each. While 12 points are still to be played for, Wolves’ path to Berlin could be decided tonight if things play out very specifically.

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Path 1

These are the results that must happen for Wolves to qualify through this scenario:

  • Wolves beat Secret in regulation time
  • Outsiders beat Heroic
  • MNM beat NAVI
  • Rogue beat BDS in regulation time

With only three games after this, this would be enough for Wolves to qualify. While five teams would be within nine points of them, only three of them can actually catch up as a number of them are facing each other.

To explain the maths further, this scenario would put Wolves on 18 points, Rogue on 13, MNM on 11, Heroic and NAVI on 10, and Outsiders on 9, with the latter five being the only ones that could catch up to Wolves’ total in just three play days.

The issue is that Outsiders being on nine means they need all nine points to reach 18… but they play MNM Gaming next week. MNM need seven out of nine points in these games, meaning there’s a conflict. Only one out of these two can catch up to Wolves, not both.

Similarly, we have Heroic and NAVI, who in this scenario would have nine or 10 points. As such, they can end the stage with a maximum of 19 points. Once again, these two teams are set to play each other next week. The loser of this game will win a maximum of one point, meaning they can end the stage with no more than 17, just shy of Wolves’ total.

In total, this means the only teams that can overtake Wolves in this scenario are Rogue, either MNM or Outsiders, and either Heroic or NAVI. This would put Wolves in fourth and so still in a Berlin Major qualification spot.

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Path 2

Alternatively, Wolves could also qualify for the Major if the following happens:

  • Wolves beat Secret in regulation time
  • BDS beat Rogue in regulation time
  • Outsiders beat Heroic in overtime
  • MNM beat NAVI in overtime

This works as it would mean Monday ends with Wolves on 18 points, MNM and BDS on 11, Rogue, Heroic, and NAVI on 10, and Outsiders on nine, meaning six teams would be within three game wins of Wolves’ total with three games remaining.

Nevertheless, Outsiders would still need all three points against MNM to reach 18, while MNM would need at least one. Both aren’t possible at the same time, so one or the other can tie Wolves’ total, not both of them.

As well as this, Rogue, Heroic, and NAVI are each on 10 points, meaning they would need to win all three remaining games even to tie Wolves’ point count of 18. These three are each yet to play each other, meaning only one out of the three could possibly win all their games and get eight or more points.

Ultimately, in this scenario, the only teams that could overtake Wolves would be BDS, either MNM or Outsiders, and either Rogue, Heroic, or NAVI. Only three teams once again means that fourth is Wolves’ worst possible result.

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Is this going to happen?

It would be genuinely insane if each of these results in path two lines up perfectly for Wolves to qualify like this.

Not only do four out of five results need to be won by the right team, but a very specific number of points need to be won by each team in each matchup as well. Just looking at the caster predictions before the games show how wild results can be.

Path one, on the other hand, isn’t too far-fetched.

Wolves and Rogue are favourites to win their respective matches later today, while NAVI vs MNM is a toss-up. The biggest upset would be Outsiders beating Heroic, however, there are only two points separating them, it can happen in overtime, and Heroic lost to last placed Secret just last week.

Wolves Esports probably won’t qualify for August’s Berlin Major later tonight, but it’s on the cards.

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