EUL Day 9 preview: Sweden Major race comes to heated conclusion

^{Banner image: Ubisoft/Kirill Bashkirov}

UPDATE 18/10/2021: The EUL has announced the final play day of the season has been moved to Oct. 21. 

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The final EUL play day is upon us, and there's still lots at stake.

Team Vitality and Rogue could potentially punch their tickets to their first international tournament of the year. They can't rest easy, though: if they slip up, cowana and Virtus.pro are nipping at their heels.

There's a number of possible situations, so let's cover how every team that's unconfirmed for the Sweden Major can qualify for the tournament. 

Team Empire 

It's pretty simple for Team Empire; they just need to at least go to overtime in their game against NAVI. One more point will put Empire out of a possible tiebreaker jungle should cowana Gaming win their game in regulation.

It's unquestionable that Empire has the easiest path to the Sweden Major. 

Rogue

Rogue need two points, or an overtime victory at least. The problem that stands in front of them is that their final game is against Team Vitality, who are a mere one point behind them in the standings. For both teams, that game is effectively a "do-or-die" match: if it's a regulation loss, the loser could find itself out of the Sweden Major. 

However, if Rogue just get two points, they'll be outside of cowana's striking range. If Rogue win, they're in. Out of all the teams that have a substantial chance of missing Sweden, Rogue's situation is by far the most straightforward. 

If it does come down to tiebreakers, Rogue are still in a good spot. They hold the head to head over cowana and Virtus.Pro, effectively ensuring that these two teams need to jump them in points to steal their spot -- a feat that Rogue could easily close the door on with a win in overtime or regulation.

Team Vitality

Vitality are in a similar but different position than Rogue. They're one point ahead of cowana, so they'll need all three points in their match vs. Rogue to completely seal off any tiebreaker scenario. 

If Vitality win in overtime, they're still in danger. Cowana play Heroic, the last-placed team in EUL, and hold the tiebreaker over Vitality. Cowana will likely scoop three points from that game, and if Vitality don't put significant distance between themselves and cowana, they will be sitting in fifth place, on the outside looking in. 

Vitality hold their own destiny in their hands, but just barely. They need seven rounds and for Rogue to not hit six rounds. If they can accomplish a regulation win, they will make the Major. Anything other than that, and it will get a bit dicey. 

Cowana Gaming

A quick glance at the standings would tell you that cowana aren't in a good spot, but a further look at the schedule and tiebreaker rules tell a different story. 

Cowana play Heroic, who are in theory the easiest possible opponents. If cowana take care of business, they aren't actually in the worst spot. The best case scenario for them is for Rogue to beat Vitality, since cowana hold the tiebreaker over Vitality.

Cowana could technically catch Rogue as well, but the chances for this scenario are significantly slimmer. If Vitality do win, cowana better hope it's in regulation. 

But cowana do need to be aware of one team on their tail, one that could mess everything up: Virtus.Pro. 

Virtus.pro

Due to an extremely slow start to the stage, Virtus.pro are in one of the worst positions, but they aren't completely out of it yet. 

VP cannot catch Rogue; the points gap is too extreme. They need Vitality to lose in regulation in order to have a snowball's chance in Hell at making the Major. The Russian side needs to defeat Team Secret in regulation first, though. 

Effectively, Virtus.Pro's future is in Heroic's hands. If Heroic can steal a victory from cowana (it would have to be in overtime to force a three-way tie in points) and Rogue can completely stop Vitality from gaining a single point, VP can make the Major... off round differential, provided they win the correct number of rounds.  

Virtus.pro are not mathematically out of Major contention yet, but the odds of them making the Major are astronomically low. Stranger things have happened, and there's still a chance, but it's slim.